Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 34.762980 37.589412 40.671115 44.305655 48.508125 53.256122 59.086843
2025-05-04 30.961742 34.789125 39.247160 44.914954 52.069784 61.010719 73.396032
2025-05-11 28.254867 32.505722 37.667021 44.561884 53.813989 66.273407 85.287447
2025-05-18 26.160533 30.616227 36.194462 43.932515 54.830739 70.448654 96.425015
2025-05-25 24.403449 28.936452 34.747563 43.053360 55.223727 73.614680 106.679362
2025-06-01 22.951290 27.507403 33.463439 42.193379 55.430454 76.405773 116.993885
2025-06-08 21.601620 26.105343 32.083417 41.022440 54.957904 77.933985 125.358246
2025-06-15 21.184063 25.908100 32.319052 42.192584 58.245504 86.413579 151.159211
2025-06-22 20.402985 25.156678 31.706858 42.005471 59.262348 90.982170 170.427662
2025-06-29 19.542782 24.243385 30.795179 41.260222 59.212515 93.460962 185.707371
2025-07-06 18.632304 23.213386 29.650663 40.049427 58.194116 93.776996 195.174436
2025-07-13 18.474941 23.236971 30.050532 41.340611 61.826180 104.715313 245.773289
2025-07-20 18.199467 23.096416 30.224425 42.329842 65.165736 116.344616 315.120665
2025-07-27 17.832555 22.804481 30.149355 42.894426 67.790322 127.268440 402.721236
2025-08-03 17.293308 22.229468 29.595119 42.567079 68.535065 133.538092 481.122888
2025-08-10 16.739159 21.606897 28.929704 41.983256 68.651355 138.122187 563.514611
2025-08-17 16.174593 20.945687 28.168648 41.167052 68.154901 140.778746 642.586332
2025-08-24 15.650351 20.325983 27.445075 40.367889 67.600941 143.158590 734.144663
2025-08-31 15.098344 19.645531 26.594423 39.278540 66.267250 142.669573 795.254429
2025-09-07 15.012508 19.673092 26.895982 40.367150 70.138977 161.634288 1362.620390
2025-09-14 14.688703 19.320333 26.551471 40.193170 70.968419 170.053348 1956.658902
2025-09-21 14.286351 18.832240 25.960495 39.499868 70.424413 172.891220 2517.936040
2025-09-28 13.824110 18.237948 25.170537 38.372243 68.668059 170.172153 2747.754783